I just read something utterly fascinating at FirstRead. This is simply amazing:
*** Staying on the statistical front: Check out these cumulative vote totals for primaries and caucuses to date:
States Awarding Delegates
Total Vote %
Obama 9,373,334 50%
Clinton 8,674,779 46%
Others 726,095 4%
With Florida
Total Vote %
Obama 9,942,375 49%
Clinton 9,531,987 46%
Others 984,236 4%
With Florida and Michigan
Total Vote %
Obama 9,942,375 47%
Clinton 9,860,138 47%
Others 1,249,922 6%
Do you know what that means? Even with FL and MI included, Obama still is ahead. I don’t think Clinton can count on more super delegates any time soon. Ron Fournier’s On Deadline ran a sober looking article regarding super delegates. Oddly enough, some of the reason listed as to why some super delegates may be soured on the Clinton’s are the same reasons I don’t want another Clinton anywhere near the WH:
Obama has won 23 of 35 contests, earning the majority of delegates awarded on the basis of election results. The remaining 796 delegates are elected officials and party leaders whose votes are not tied to state primaries or caucuses; thus, they are dubbed “superdelegates.”
And they are not all super fans of the Clintons.
Some are labor leaders still angry that Bill Clinton championed the North American Free Trade Agreement as part of his centrist agenda.
Some are social activists who lobbied unsuccessfully to get him to veto welfare reform legislation, a talking point for his 1996 re-election campaign.
Some served in Congress when the Clintons dismissed their advice on health care reform in 1993. Some called her a bully at the time.
Some are DNC members who saw the party committee weakened under the Clintons and watched President Bush use the White House to build up the Republican National Committee.
Some are senators who had to defend Clinton for lying to the country about his affair with Monica Lewinsky.
Some are allies of former Vice President Al Gore who still believe the Lewinsky scandal cost him the presidency in 2000.
Some are House members (or former House members) who still blame Clinton for Republicans seizing control of the House in 1994.
Some are donors who paid for the Clintons’ campaigns and his presidential library.
Some are folks who owe the Clintons a favor but still feel betrayed or taken for granted. Could that be why Bill Richardson, a former U.N. secretary and energy secretary in the Clinton administration, refused to endorse her even after an angry call from the former president? “What,” Bill Clinton reportedly asked Richardson, “isn’t two Cabinet posts enough?”
And some just want something new. They appreciate the fact that Clinton was a successful president and his wife was an able partner, but they never loved the couple as much as they feared them.
Damn, so how does it look for her to get more super delegates? Same thing I was mentioning about those burnt bridges the Clinton have left all over America:
Clinton should find little comfort in the fact that she has secured 242 superdelegates to Obama’s 160.
“I would make the assumption that the … superdelegates she has now are the Clintons’ loyal base. A superdelegate who is uncommitted today is clearly going to wait and see how this plays out. She’s at her zenith now,” Duffy said. “Whatever political capital or IOUs that exist, she’s already collected.”
Few Democrats want to cross the Clintons when they’re on top. But how many are willing to stand by them when they’re down?
Ouch. Something tells me that answer is ‘no’. Back to First Read:
So no matter how you slice the total popular vote, Obama is the leader. He’s at 50% in states that have awarded delegates; he’s at 49% and leads Clinton by 3 points in states where both their names were on the ballot, and his lead is big enough that he leads even when you factor in Michigan where Obama’s name wasn’t on the ballot.
Does Clinton still want to play the cheating game? Are her crybaby supporters still going to want FL and MI counted if Obama is ahead? Whenever you see someone online complaining about FL and MI and they should count for Clinton, just post this.
The ELECTION ‘08: MSNBCs numbers by Anika Malone, unless otherwise expressly stated, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License.
Tags: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton